All the keys to predicting Oscar nominations


Spielberg, Cate Blanchett, Colin Farrell, ‘Avatar’, the Daniels… and all the awards at once everywhere

Images of ‘The Fabelmans’, ‘Souls in pain in Inisherin’, ‘Everything at once everywhere’ and ‘Avatar: the sense of water’.

It was cate blanchett the one that with its labored indifference found the key on January 15 at the awards ceremony for American critics. patriarchal pyramid was the expression used by the actress when she picked up hers to describe what is generically called awards season and which has achieved a new type of journalism as collateral damage. small dates which basically consists of crossing figures: the brands of the dresses worn on the red carpets are analyzed, the money received by the magazine is counted Variety in advertisements, the nobility of the alloy of the statuettes achieved until the closing of the Oscar voting is compared… and, voila, we have the most anticipated nominations of the year that will take place next Tuesday the 24th, those of the Oscars.

In reality, everything is simpler. Just as patriarchal – in Blanchett’s terminology – but simpler. It is about following the trail of what has already been awarded or what has already been nominated. Voting to determine the candidates took place between December 12 and 17. That means that each union of the 17 specialties of the Hollywood Academy that chooses its candidates (the actors select the actors, the directors the directors… and so on. Except in the case of the Best Film, which they vote all) began to check boxes with various references in view. Y…

‘All at once…’, go for 10

The most obvious of signs is also the most publicized: the reborn Golden Globes delivered by the controversial Foreign Press Association where a select group of 200 voters gather (this year 103 more were allowed to participate for clearing their consciences). Not far away would be the critics and their Critics Choice Awards (CCA). And much more relevant -since there are statistics on how many from one side go to another- would be the lists by guilds or unions that are already well visible. Yes, indeed, all very patriarchal.

Thus, there are six films that appear in all the lists (in order of prevalence): Everything at once everywhere by Daniel Kwan and Daniel Schneinert; Souls in pain in Inisherin, by Martin McDonagh; The Fabelmans, by Steven Spielberg; Elvisby Baz Luhrmann; trby Todd Field, and Top Gun: Maverick, by Joseph Kosinski. Its directors are among the candidates chosen by the directors themselves (except Luhrmann) and the six are on the list of ten presented by the producers. (PGA). A piece of information that the new predictive science likes so much: in the last ten years, 90.6% of the films nominated by the PGA have finally been nominated for the Oscars. To this we must add that all the aforementioned were in the Globes that finally won The Fabelmansin drama, and Banshees in Inisherin, in comedy. Add that and the CCAs were instead left with All at Once Everywhere, which, let’s face it, seems the best placed to rack up nominations. Another thing is if the oldest (or old) of the Academy, who are the ones who vote the most, have entered the crazy game of multiuniverses. Let’s say around 10 applications.

(Note: pay attention to No news at the front, by Edward Berger, who with his 14 mentions in the British BAFTAs is already the Netflix option).

Cat’s 3

As far as the actors are concerned, theirs is to start with what the actors themselves like (the SAG). The data tells us that in the last decade the percentage of coincidence with the Oscars oscillates between 73% and 83% in the four categories (actor, actress, secondary and secondary). I mean, there’s a lot. In this case, and crossing the nominees with the names of the awards already delivered, the following stand out in their case and always in order: Colin Farrell, for Souls in pain… after winning in Venice and the Globes; Brendan Fraser, for The Whalewhich has been a favorite of critics, and Austin Butler, for Elviswhich was the other winner of the Globes in the musical section.

Among actresses, it seems impossible to imagine anyone capable of taking her third Oscar from the very matriarchal cate blanchettwhose work in tr It has already been the most appreciated by critics and by the Globes and what will come. In the candidacies they will accompany you michelle yeohfor Everything at once… and hopefully Ana de Armas, for Blonde. And… pay attention that the actors themselves have boycotted Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans.

Where there are doubts and everything is much more uncertain is among the secondaries. But insurance, given his success at the Globes, are Ke Huy Quan, for Everything at once… Y Angela Bassett, for Wakanda forever. Another piece of information, what the minister would say: in the cast category, which is the most relevant of the SAGs, they appear again The Fabelmans, Souls… Y Everything at once… It is clear?

Tom vs. James

And what do we do with Avatar: The Water Sense and with Top Gun: Maverick after his brutal box office successes? The record of the 14 nominations in the Visual Effects Society (YOU SEE) for the first it says almost everything. But, and since we’re talking about nominations, let’s not rule out that Cruise and Cameron will be honored with a shower of nominations. Let’s put 7 or 8 each.

Now it’s time to climb the patriarchal pyramid.

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All the keys to predicting Oscar nominations

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